AFC Wildcard Preview

The regular season has ended and only 14 teams remain in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers were the best teams in the conferences and will sit out this weekend. Despite not having those two teams we are still getting treated to six tasty matchups. Today we will focus on the three AFC games.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (Saturday 1 pm)

The playoffs start off with what could end up being the game of the weekend. The red hot Bills host the savvy Colts in a game that should produce some fireworks. Both teams possess top 10 offenses that can put up points in a hurry. In one corner you have the Bills led by the resurgent Josh Allen and star receiver Stefan Diggs. In the opposite corner, the Colts counter with the duo of Philip Rivers and rookie Jonathan Taylor. It’s cliché to say, but this game will probably be decided by whoever wins the turnover battle.

Buffalo will be relying on their high powered offense to strike early and fast in this game. Taking an early lead will force the Colts to consider abandoning one of their strengths. Buffalo should focus on taking away the run game from Indianapolis if they want to control this game. If Buffalo can force Rivers into some turnovers, that will go a long way towards helping them win at home.

On the other hand, the Colts should rely on their running game to control the tempo of the game. I know the Colts signed Rivers for these types of games, but controlling the clock is key here. The Colts defense should focus on keeping the Bills offense off the field for as much as possible. If the Colts defense, which has been good lately, can keep the Bills relatively quiet, they might steal an unlikely win.  This is a closer matchup to call than what most people would think, but I see Buffalo marching on to the next round.

Buffalo 31 Indy 27

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 pm)

These two teams have seen a lot of each other in recent times. Last year the Titans marched into Baltimore and unceremoniously dumped the Ravens out of the playoffs. Then these two teams faced off again this season for a rematch that Tennessee also won. Even with the two previous victories, this matchup isn’t a foregone conclusion.

The Ravens have risen from the dead by winning their last five games to storm into the playoffs. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be properly motivated to win his first playoff game. This will be his third playoff game and third game against the Titans. Maybe the third time is the charm in both cases. As for their defense, the Ravens have the 8th best run defense. That ranking will certainly be put to the test this weekend.

As for the Titans, they are led by Derrick Henry who continues to defy logic. Most players wear down as the season goes, but it seems like he only gets stronger. After rushing for over 2000 yards he will be eager to continue his strong play in the playoffs. The cause for concern in Tennessee would be their leaky secondary and lack of ability to stop teams on third down. The Titans’ defense was the worst in the league in stopping third-down conversions. That might be all Baltimore needs to pull the upset.

Baltimore 28 Tennessee 24

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 8 pm)

These two old rivals meet again for the third time this season. They split the season series so far, although the Steelers rested many of their starters the second time around. In recent history, the Steelers have absolutely dominated this matchup winning 11 (one of them ended in a tie) of the last 15 matchups. On the other hand, the Browns are in the playoffs for the first time in 18 years and will be fired up. It is the classic experience vs youth matchup with the mental edge going to the Steelers.

The Browns will be relying on young QB Baker Mayfield backed up by the best duo of RBs in the league. Expect a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb in this game as the Browns look to control the clock. Injuries have made the Steelers vulnerable on defense and this might be as good a time as ever for a famous victory. On the defensive side of the ball, the Browns have the talent to give Big Ben problems. How quiet they can keep the Steeler’s QB will be key for them.

The Steelers will be relying on Big Ben and the multitude of weapons he has at his disposal. It will be imperative for the Steelers to get the run game going. If they can’t get the run game going there will be way too much attention focused on Big Ben. As for their defense, they can relieve some pressure by forcing some turnovers. This Steelers defense was third-best in giving up points this season and part of that was their ability to force mistakes. So if they can force at least two turnovers then this shouldn’t be a hurdle they can’t overcome.

Pittsburgh 24 Cleveland 21

***

Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the NFC Wildcard Weekend